Democrats Lead Final Polls in Key Senate Races Ahead of November 3 Midterms

Voters in the United States cast ballots on November 3, 2026, in midterm elections that will determine control of the House of Representatives, 35 Senate seats, and 39 governorships. Final polls released on November 1 and 2 showed Democratic candidates leading in several Republican-held Senate contests that could decide the chamber.

New York Times/Siena College surveys of likely voters conducted between October 23 and November 1 found Democrats ahead in Michigan (Abdul El-Sayed 53 percent to Mike Rogers 42 percent), Texas (James Talarico 50 to Ken Paxton 43), Kansas (Adam Hamilton 49 to Roger Marshall 44), Maine (Troy Jackson 51 to Susan Collins 45), Ohio (Sherrod Brown 49 to Jon Husted 44), and Alaska (Mary Peltola 48 to Dan Sullivan 46). Iowa remained essentially tied, with Josh Turek at 48 percent and Ashley Hinson at 47 percent.

Republicans currently hold 53 Senate seats. Democrats and their two independent caucus members hold 47. A net gain of four seats would give Democrats a majority, as Vice President JD Vance would break a 50-50 tie. The late polling placed that threshold within reach if the leads hold.

National generic ballot averages showed Democrats ahead by roughly 7 to 9 points in the final days. An Ipsos survey released November 2 put Democrats at 52 percent and Republicans at 44 percent among likely voters. Presidential approval stood in the low 30s in several late polls.

In Michigan, the Democratic primary winner El-Sayed faced an unexpected endorsement of his Republican opponent by Representative Haley Stevens, who had lost the primary to him. The move drew sharp criticism from other Democrats but arrived after most early voting had already occurred. Stevens’s action did not appear to narrow El-Sayed’s lead in the final Times/Siena poll.

House projections favored Democrats to gain the handful of seats needed for a majority. All 435 seats are on the ballot. Early voting had already exceeded 50 million ballots in some tallies by November 2.

The Senate map includes several states that have not elected a Democrat in decades, including Kansas. Whether the late polling advantage translates into wins will depend on turnout in rural counties and the performance of down-ballot candidates in those states. Results are expected to begin arriving after polls close on the East Coast in the evening of November 3.

Control of the Senate would shape confirmation of judges, budget negotiations, and the ability of the administration to advance legislation without Democratic support for the remainder of the presidential term.