Dangote Refinery opens Africa's largest IPO at N525 a share

Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals opened books on 14 September for 4.1 billion new ordinary shares at 525 naira each. The base offer is 2.15 trillion naira, about $1.6 billion at the prospectus rate of 1,324 naira to the dollar. A greenshoe can lift proceeds toward $2.1 billion. The implied valuation is about 63 to 65 trillion naira, or $47 to $49 billion. Minimum ticket is 10 shares, 5,250 naira. Books close 13 October. Trading on the Nigerian Exchange is slated for November.

BusinessDay reported N1.5 trillion of subscriptions in the first six hours, about 70 percent of the base target, and temporary outages on digital application channels. Aliko Dangote called the sale a people's IPO at the Facts Behind the Offer session and the opening gong in Lagos. He said the group already had capital for expansion and that the point was to let ordinary Nigerians own part of the plant. The group had planned $1.5 billion from the IPO and $1 billion from a private placement. The July placement drew about $2.5 billion of orders for $1 billion of stock. Some $1.2 billion was returned. Those institutions bought at a $40 billion valuation with a lock-up. Retail buyers in September are paying a higher implied price.

The Lekki refinery processes 650,000 to 700,000 barrels a day and reached full rates this year after a $20 billion build. First-half 2026 profit after tax was $1.82 billion on more than $13 billion of revenue, after a $476 million loss in 2025. Management wants $14.3 billion to double capacity to 1.4 million barrels a day by 2029. Jet fuel sales into western Europe rose after supply shocks tied to the Iran war. Diesel and gasoline already move across West Africa.

A 3.3 percent public float on a plant that dominates Nigerian gasoline supply is a political object as much as a market one. Pension funds, diaspora accounts and walk-in applications of 10 shares will sit on the same register as the Africa Finance Corporation and other placement names. Oversubscription is the advertised problem. Governance after listing is the unadvertised one. A single controlling shareholder who also runs the rest of the conglomerate will still set capex.

For Lagos the listing is a test of whether the exchange can clear Africa's largest IPO without the application rails falling over. For the rest of the continent it is a test of whether a refinery built to kill import dependence can also become a widely held equity. The first six hours say demand is not the constraint. Price discipline between the July private book and the September public book is the constraint that retail buyers have already accepted.

If the greenshoe is used, the free float stays thin and the valuation prints closer to $49 billion. If it is not, the base $1.6 billion still funds only a slice of the doubling plan. Either way the register will show, by November, how many Nigerians bought 10 shares because the gong ceremony told them to.