Dangote opens Africa's largest refinery IPO at 5,250 naira for 10 shares

Aliko Dangote opened the share sale in Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals at 08:00 in Lagos on Monday. Retail buyers can apply for a minimum of 10 ordinary shares at 525 naira each, or 5,250 naira, about $4 at the current conversion used in the offer documents. The company is issuing 4.1 billion new shares. If the book fills, the raise is 2.15 trillion naira, about $1.6 billion. A greenshoe of up to 30 percent more shares could lift that toward $2.1 billion.

The offer closes on 13 October. Trading is slated to start in November on the Nigerian Exchange. Dangote called it an IPO for the people. He remains the controlling owner. The prospectus puts his beneficial interest at 104.83 billion of 120.13 billion shares now in issue, or 87.27 percent, held through Dangote Oil Refining Company, Dangote Industries Limited, Greenview International and a stake in Salamad Ventures. At the offer price that block is valued at about 55 trillion naira, or $41.6 billion. If the base offer is fully taken his holding falls to about 84.3 or 84.4 percent because the new shares dilute everyone. He is not selling existing stock. This is a primary issue.

NNPC Limited holds 8.19 billion shares, 6.815 percent, which would slip to about 6.59 percent after the base offer. Other holders sit at just under 6 percent. The pre-listing market capitalisation in the documents is 63.07 trillion naira. The indicative figure at listing is 65.22 trillion naira, a valuation near $49 billion, more than twice the construction cost of the plant.

The Lekki refinery runs about 700,000 barrels a day. The company plans to add another 700,000 barrels a day by 2029 at an estimated $14.3 billion. Part of the IPO cash is meant for that expansion. The plant is already the largest refinery in Africa. A doubled unit would put it among the largest anywhere.

Titi Adetoye, an operations manager in Abuja, told the Associated Press she planned to buy up to 1,000 shares and that she was placing weight on Dangote's name and on the size of the plant. Joachim McEbong, a senior West Africa analyst at Control Risks, said a sale that leaves the founder with 87 percent is a hard fit with a people-driven label. Both comments can sit on the same page. The ticket is small. Control does not move.

Nigerian retail investors apply through a designated electronic channel. Eligible buyers in other African markets use a separate distribution channel. The Securities and Exchange Commission has approved the offer. Global oil prices above $100 after the Hormuz disruption improve the near-term refining margin story the bankers will tell. They do not change the ownership math.

Africa has not seen an IPO of this cash size in years. The test through 13 October is whether ordinary accounts actually fund 4.1 billion shares, or whether institutions quietly take the book while the minimum 10-share story does the public work. Dangote will still run the refinery either way.