Carney's Liberals take three special elections, including a Conservative Quebec seat

Mark Carney's Liberal Party won all three federal special elections held on Monday, 31 August. The Canadian Press projected Liberal victories in Chicoutimi-Le Fjord in Quebec, Beaches-East York in Toronto and North Vancouver-Capilano in British Columbia. The Quebec result is the one that changes the map. That riding had been in Conservative hands since 2018. Dairy farmer Daniel Gobeil took more than half the vote there.

Tanveer Shahnawaz held Beaches-East York. Braeden Caley, who had served as Carney's deputy chief of staff, held North Vancouver-Capilano. Carney said on X that voters had placed their trust in the government at a consequential time. Liberal MP Hedy Fry told CBC that the United States was getting a message and that the leader had the support of the Canadian people.

Why these three seats were open

Each vacancy came from a resignation. The Liberals needed the Quebec pickup more than the two holds. A by-election in April had already given Carney a majority. Monday's sweep takes the party to 173 seats in a 343-seat House of Commons, according to the Guardian's count, and keeps that majority intact. Six more special elections are due in the coming months.

Chicoutimi-Le Fjord is aluminium and dairy country. Those are two of the sectors caught in the tariff fight with Washington. U.S.-Canada trade talks collapsed on 21 August. Trump then put 50 percent tariffs on about $20 billion of Canadian goods. Ottawa announced counter-tariffs. Canadian duties on U.S. goods are scheduled to start on 8 September. Trump last week also ordered U.S. federal agencies to call Lake Ontario Lake America, a change that binds American maps only. Ontario Premier Doug Ford answered with a shoreline sign at Fifty Point in Grimsby that reads Now and Always.

The Quebec overlay

Quebec voters go to the polls on 5 October in a provincial election. Separatists have been favoured even as support for independence has fallen. Carney told reporters that U.S. negotiators had made unacceptable threats to the French language and to Quebec culture. Gobeil's win lets the federal Liberals argue that a dairy and metals riding on the Saguenay chose them while a trade war is on.

The Conservatives have not closed the gap since losing last year's federal election. Recent polls put them about 10 points behind Carney's party. Monday does not fix that. It does stop them from claiming the first test of Carney's second year as a rebuke.

What the majority is for

Carney has used the majority he locked in April to push an agenda that reduces dependence on the United States and deepens ties with Europe and other partners. The new seats do not change the arithmetic by much. They do change the story he can tell in Quebec and in the aluminium towns that will feel the 8 September tariffs first.

Trump has again spoken of Canada as a 51st state. Carney's line after the count was that Canada is being tested and that Canadians are up for it. The next numbered test is the tariff date, not another ballot. Six more special elections will show whether Monday was a local hold or a wider refusal to punish the government for the fight with Washington.