Caiado and Zema endorse Flávio Bolsonaro; Cury and Santos endorse neither

Senator Flávio Bolsonaro received endorsements on Monday from two right-wing rivals eliminated in Sunday's first round. Ronaldo Caiado, a former governor of Goiás, will meet him on Tuesday to announce the endorsement, Caiado's press team said. Romeu Zema, a former governor of Minas Gerais, posted his support on social media the same day. Reuters reported both moves from Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo.

Caiado took 2.18 percent of valid votes on Sunday. Zema took 0.27 percent. Valid votes exclude blank and null ballots. Their combined share is about 2.45 points. The runoff against President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is on 25 October. Bolsonaro led the first round with 47.03 percent, or 56.1 million votes, to Lula's 45.16 percent.

The two who refused

Augusto Cury, an author and psychiatrist, finished on 2.89 percent. Renan Santos finished on 2.24 percent. Both said they would not endorse Bolsonaro or Lula. Their combined 5.13 points are larger than Caiado and Zema together, and they are now unattached. A runoff is decided by where those votes go, or by whether they stay home.

Caiado is from the PSD. Zema is from NOVO. The party labels matter less on 25 October than the instruction each man gives his voters. Caiado's endorsement is not yet a speech. It is a meeting set for Tuesday, announced by his press team. Zema's is already a post. One is a date. The other is a text.

Why a small share still moves a runoff

Brazil's first round produced no majority. The second round is a two-name ballot. A candidate who took 2 percent in a field of many can still deliver a fraction of that 2 percent when the field is two. Caiado's 2.18 percent is about 2.6 million votes if turnout matches Sunday's, before anyone defects. Zema's 0.27 percent is a few hundred thousand. Neither bloc, added in full to Bolsonaro's 47.03, produces 50 percent. The endorsements are a direction, not a majority.

The voters who can still change the sum are Cury's and Santos's, and the blank and null ballots that were excluded from the valid-vote percentages. Private polls before Sunday had Lula ahead by about 3 points. The count reversed that. Endorsements on Monday are the first public attempt to lock the first-round right in place before Lula's campaign spends the three weeks.

The meeting on Tuesday

Caiado's press team put the announcement on Tuesday, at a meeting with Bolsonaro. Until that meeting happens, the endorsement is a statement of intent from a press office. Zema has already published his. The difference is procedural. It is also the next dated event in a campaign whose only other fixed date is 25 October.

Lula, speaking in São Paulo on Sunday night, said he had been convinced he would win in the first round. He did not. The Monday endorsements do not answer him. They tell two small electorates which name their former candidate prefers. Cury and Santos have told theirs that they prefer neither.