BJP takes 4,179 Rajasthan civic wards, 99,615 votes ahead of Congress

Rajasthan's urban local body results, declared on 14 September, gave the Bharatiya Janata Party 4,179 wards and the Congress 3,613. Independents took 2,273. The BJP's share of the 10,244 wards counted is 40.8 percent. The Congress share is 35.3 percent. Independents hold 22.2 percent. The gap between the two main parties is 566 wards.

The vote shares are closer than the seat shares. Across 309 municipalities the BJP received 37,35,567 votes, or 35.18 percent. The Congress received 36,35,952 votes, or 34.24 percent. Independents received 29,06,787 votes, or 27.38 percent. The raw gap between BJP and Congress is 99,615 votes out of 1.06 crore. NOTA received 1,09,523 votes, more than the Rashtriya Loktantrik Party, AAP, the CPI(M), the BSP or the Bharat Adivasi Party.

Five registered parties finished below NOTA in the popular vote. RLP took 1,00,277 votes and 63 wards. AAP took 49,829 votes and 42 wards. CPI(M) took 34,170 votes and 38 wards. BSP took 30,179 votes and 19 wards. BAP took 14,150 votes and 8 wards.

Cities that did not follow the state line

Udaipur's 80-member municipal corporation went to the BJP, 53 wards to 23 for Congress, with three Independents and one CPI(M) seat. Ajmer went the other way: Congress 37, BJP 32, Independents 11, in another 80-ward house. Pali's 65-ward nigam also went to Congress, 29-21-15. Bharatpur, Chief Minister Bhajan Lal Sharma's hometown, was an Independents' race.

Two 21-year-olds won. Congress candidate Faiz Hassan took Ward 71 of the Jaipur Municipal Corporation, ahead of Independent Mohammad Salim on 5,256 votes, with the BJP's Nisha Gaur third. In Thanagazi municipality in Alwar, BJP candidate Neha Sharma beat her Congress rival by 101 votes. Local office in Rajasthan has a minimum age of 21. They cleared it on the first try.

Comparison with the last cycle is messy because the map grew. The number of wards rose by 37 percent. A party can gain seats and lose share at the same time. The BJP's 41 percent of wards against 35 percent for Congress is a win. The 0.94 percentage-point gap in votes is a warning. Independents at 27 percent of the vote and 22 percent of the wards are the third force in every count.

What a civic result is for

Urban local bodies in Rajasthan collect property tax, run water and drainage, and issue the permissions that decide whether a floor gets built. They are also a turnout machine for the next Assembly election. Sharma called the result a historic victory and credited two-and-a-half years of state government work. Congress workers pointed at Ajmer, Pali and the sub-1-percent vote gap.

Ward maps in Rajasthan are not a proxy for the next Assembly in a clean way. Civic rolls are urban. The Assembly is still won and lost in blocks that these 309 bodies do not cover. What the civic count does measure is organisation in the towns: who can put a booth agent in every ward of Udaipur and who cannot do the same in Ajmer. On that narrower test the BJP was ahead and not by a landslide.

The usable figure for anyone reading the result from outside Jaipur is the independent column. More than one voter in four refused both national parties in a civic election. That is a higher share than AAP, RLP and the rest of the small-party list combined. The next mayor in a hung council will be chosen by those wards, not by the 566-ward headline.