Bihar still counts 48 lakh in the flood as the Ganga and Kosi begin to fall

Bihar's Disaster Management Department still counted more than 48 lakh people in the flood on Sunday, even as most rivers began to fall. The latest departmental figures put 48.35 lakh to 48.70 lakh people across 575 gram panchayats, 87 to 88 blocks and 15 districts. Patna, Bhojpur, Saran, Vaishali, Bhagalpur, Begusarai and Araria remain the worst of that list.

September rainfall in the state is running above normal: 108.8 mm, about 20 percent high, in one official briefing, and 111.7 mm, about 13 percent high, in a later one. Heavy rain in Nepal's catchments added water to the Kosi, Gandak, Bagmati and Ghaghra before it crossed the border. The Water Resources Department had already warned of sudden bank erosion and told field staff to watch weak stretches.

The Ganga was still above danger at Digha, Gandhi Ghat, Hathidah, Bhagalpur, Kahalgaon and Munger. At Sultanganj in Bhagalpur it had been near 36.48 metres on Saturday morning, almost two metres over the mark, though falling. The Kosi was above danger at Baltara and Kursela, the Burhi Gandak at Khagaria, the Punpun at Sripalpur, the Bagmati at Benibad and the Ghaghra at Darauli and Gangpur Siswan.

The relief ledger

The administration listed 1,251 to 1,257 community kitchens and 13 relief camps, with space, food and medical cover for about 12,260 people. About 1,790 boats were on evacuation and local transport. Ten NDRF teams and 27 SDRF teams were in the districts. Earlier in the week the state had issued about 3.53 lakh polythene sheets, 59,500 dry-ration packets and 1,400 food packets.

Those camp numbers are small against 48 lakh affected. Most of the 48 lakh are not in camps. They are in villages where the kitchen and the boat are the service, and where a falling gauge still leaves water in the field. Leader of the Opposition Tejashwi Yadav accused the Centre of a stepmotherly approach to Bihar's flood relief. The departmental brief on Sunday did not answer him. It reported receding levels and a kitchen count.

The affected-district list also includes Buxar, Samastipur, Munger, Katihar, Lakhisarai, Khagaria, Purnia and Madhepura in the fuller departmental roll. Friday evening's count had been 47.33 lakh. The rise into Saturday and the slight spread in Sunday's two briefings show a live tally, not a rounded campaign figure.

What receding water does not fix

A river that drops below the painted danger line can still take a bank overnight. That is why the WRD note on erosion sits next to the falling gauges. The Kosi at Baltara and Kursela, and the Ganga through the Bhagalpur-Munger stretch, are the points that decide whether next week's count falls by lakhs or stalls.

Bihar's flood year is not only a rain year. It is a Nepal-catchment year and an embankment year. The 1,790 boats and 37 disaster teams are the visible state. The 575 gram panchayats are the map. If the Ganga at Gandhi Ghat and Hathidah keep falling through Monday, the kitchen list should shrink. If a bank goes at Khagaria or Kursela, the 48 lakh figure will move the other way.

Monday's IMD warning of rain and wind across a large belt of north India is the next input. The departmental dashboard, not the speeches, will show whether Sunday's recession held.