Bihar's rivers sit on both sides of the danger line after Nepal's surge

Bihar spent Friday reading two flood bulletins at once. One, from the Water Resources Department, listed the Gandak, Kosi, Ganga, Burhi Gandak and Ghaghra above the danger mark at several stations after the Nepal surge. The other, issued later in the day, recorded falling discharge at the big barrages and told farmers in ten north Bihar paddy districts that the immediate crest had passed.

Both can be true on the same afternoon. A river can stay above a painted danger line while the volume coming through the gates is already dropping. That is the position on 28 August.

Where the gauges sat

The state's flood-forecast pages, drawing on Central Water Commission readings for 28 August, put Kosi at Birpur in Supaul at 75.35 metres against a danger level of 74.70. Baltara in Khagaria was 34.49 against 33.85. Kursela in Katihar was 30.66 against 30.00. Burhi Gandak at Khagaria was 37.17 against 36.58. On the Ganga stem, Hathidah in Patna was 42.46 against 41.76, Gandhighat 49.27 against 48.60, Azmabad in Bhagalpur 31.20 against 30.54. Sone at Maner was 52.10 against 52.00. Several other stations sat above warning but below danger.

PTI's district list matched those numbers to places people know. Gandak above danger in Gopalganj. Kosi and Burhi Gandak at danger in Khagaria, Katihar and Kursela. Ganga above danger at Digha, Hathidah and Gandhighat in Patna and at Kahalgaon in Bhagalpur. Ghaghra above danger at Darauli in Siwan. All 36 gates of the Gandak barrage had been opened during the peak, with discharge over 1 lakh cusecs.

What fell on Friday

The same department said discharge at Valmikinagar on the Gandak held at 99,800 cusecs for 11 hours, from 2 a.m. to 1 p.m., then eased. Kosi at Birpur dropped from 1.48 lakh cusecs on Thursday to 1.34 lakh on Friday afternoon. Sone at Indrapuri fell from 1.34 lakh cusecs to 86,080. The Ganga at Digha was described as below danger in a later Times of India account, with levels also down at Gandhi Ghat and Hathidah. That sentence conflicts with the morning CWC table. The honest reading is that the river was leaving the peak, station by station, and that two desks wrote at two hours.

West Champaran, East Champaran, Sitamarhi, Muzaffarpur, Gopalganj, Saran and Vaishali had spent three days on alert after the Wednesday inflow from Nepal. The ten paddy districts named in the relief note were West and East Champaran, Sitamarhi, Muzaffarpur, Madhubani, Supaul, Madhepura, Purnia, Araria and Katihar. Ring bunds in the northern diara of Bhagalpur and Begusarai were breached. That is the damage already done. The falling barrage figures are the reason officials told farmers the next wave was not coming tonight.

What Saturday still depends on

The water in these channels is Nepal's water with a delay. A second pulse from the new barrier lakes on the Bhote Koshi would take a different path, into the Trishuli and then the Narayani-Gandak system, not straight into the Kosi. Hydrologists will watch both. For Bihar the practical list on Saturday is the same as Friday's: Birpur, Baltara, Gandhighat, Hathidah, Khagaria, and the Valmikinagar gates. If those numbers keep falling, the paddy belt gets a week. If they rise again, the alert that was relaxed on Friday evening goes back up.