Becirovic, Filipovic and Cvijanovic lead Bosnia's presidency count at 96 percent

Bosnia's election commission said early on Monday that a Bosniak moderate, a Croat nationalist and a Serb nationalist were leading the vote for the country's three-member presidency, with ballots counted from 96.31 percent of polling stations. Turnout across the two entities was 42.02 percent. Voters also chose the state parliament and the assemblies of the Bosniak-Croat Federation and Republika Srpska.

Denis Becirovic, a Bosniak from the Social Democratic Party and a sitting member of the presidency, had 26.78 percent in the Federation, ahead of the candidate of the Party of Democratic Action. Darijana Filipovic, standing for the Croatian Democratic Union, had 13.89 percent in the same entity and was leading the Croat seat. In Republika Srpska, Zeljka Cvijanovic, the sitting Serb member of the presidency and a figure in the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats, had 55.41 percent. Reuters reported the leads from Sarajevo and Banja Luka as in line with expectations and with the Poliwave projection.

Three races, not one

The presidency is not a single national contest. Bosniak and Croat voters in the Federation elect their members. Serb voters in Republika Srpska elect theirs. A lead in one race does not transfer to another. Becirovic's 26.78 percent and Filipovic's 13.89 percent are shares of the Federation vote, in a field that includes both communities' candidates. Cvijanovic's 55.41 percent is a share of the Republika Srpska vote, and it is the only one of the three that looks like a majority rather than a plurality.

Becirovic is the incumbent on the Bosniak seat and the candidate of a party generally classed as moderate and oriented toward the European Union. Filipovic is a newcomer on the HDZ ticket, a Croat nationalist list that is also formally pro-European. Cvijanovic's SNSD is the Serb party most often described as nationalist and close to Moscow. The commission's early table therefore points to a presidency that keeps a familiar split: one seat with the SDP, one with the HDZ, one with the SNSD. That is a continuation of the current ethnic balance, not a swap of any of the three chairs, if the remaining 3.69 percent of stations does not reverse a lead.

Turnout and the talks that sit behind the vote

A combined turnout of 42.02 percent is low for a general election that also fills the state parliament and both entity chambers. The presidency numbers will draw the headlines. The parliamentary count is what decides whether the parties that win the three seats can also assemble a state government. Bosnia's European Union accession talks are the stated stake in the Reuters account of the vote. Russia and the United States both treat the country as a place where a government line matters. Neither has a seat on the commission's table. The table has three names, three percentages, and a count that is not finished.

The remaining stations are the caveat. At 96.31 percent, Becirovic's lead over the SDA candidate and Cvijanovic's 55.41 percent are unlikely to move on a recount of the outstanding boxes, unless those boxes are concentrated and lopsided. Filipovic's 13.89 percent is a smaller share in a split field, and it is the lead most exposed to a late batch. The commission has not certified a winner. It has published a count. The usable fact on Monday morning is that count: Becirovic 26.78, Filipovic 13.89, Cvijanovic 55.41, turnout 42.02, stations 96.31 percent.