BARMM's first parliament vote puts BFP ahead of Murad's UBJP with most returns in

The Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao held its first parliamentary elections on Monday. By Tuesday morning the Commission on Elections had received 5,129 election returns, 98.4 percent of the total, with 83 still pending. Partial unofficial figures posted by the Parish Pastoral Council for Responsible Voting put the Bangsamoro Federalist Party first on the regional party ballot with 659,405 votes. The United Bangsamoro Justice Party, the political vehicle of Moro Islamic Liberation Front chairman Ahod "Al Haj Murad" Ebrahim, had 607,966. The BARMM Grand Coalition had 386,027. The Raayat Democratic Party had 67,846.

Those four parties were the ones that had already crossed the 2.5 percent threshold needed to win at least one of the 40 party-representative seats, on counts published Monday night when returns were at 95.4 percent. With 2.39 million registered voters, that threshold is about 59,830 votes if every ballot is valid. Seat shares among the 40 party posts are then allocated by vote share. District seats are a separate race. In Lanao del Sur, Comelec proclaimed five of nine district winners on Tuesday, including UBJP's Hamza Gauraki, Lampa I Pandi and Ahmad Amir Balindong, and SIAP's Hosni Macapodi and Rayyan Mindalano.

Thirteen parties stood for the party list. Below the threshold on the Tuesday late-morning table were Pro Bangsamoro, BAPA, BEST, Moro Ako, Mahardika, ABOT and MUSHAWARA. Those names may still move if the last 83 returns are concentrated, but the gap from fourth to fifth was already large on the 10:45 a.m. print.

The vote closes a transition that began when the Bangsamoro Organic Law created the region and left a Bangsamoro Transition Authority in charge. Murad has led that authority. A first elected parliament is the test of whether the MILF's political party can convert a peace agreement into a working majority, or whether clan and federalist lists take the chamber. BFP's lead on the party ballot is the first public sign that the conversion is not automatic.

Security was the other test. The army and police deployed extra units from the 1st Infantry Division into Lanao del Sur. Five people were wounded in a grenade blast in Shariff Aguak during the gun ban. Comelec and local commanders still described the day as orderly in most precincts. That is the baseline a first election needs if the next fight is going to be about budgets and ministries rather than about whether the poll itself was valid.

Final proclamation of party seats will follow the official canvass, not the PPCRV tracker. The tracker is useful because it already shows the shape of the chamber: two large parties close to each other, one strong coalition in third, and a long tail that may pick up a seat or two if the last returns break their way. How those four blocs bargain over the speakership and the cabinet will decide whether BARMM's first elected government looks like a continuation of the transition authority or a break with it.