Andersson leads Sweden's election night. Wednesday's count can still take it away

Sweden's Social Democrats led Sunday's general election in the first public exit poll, with Magdalena Andersson's left-of-centre bloc ahead of Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson's right-wing alliance by about four and a half points. SVT's Valu survey, released after polling stations closed at 20:00, put the Social Democrats on 28.4 percent, the Moderates on 18.1 percent and the Sweden Democrats on 17.2 percent. Combined, the Social Democrats, Left Party, Greens and Centre Party took 51.3 percent. Kristersson's side took 46.8 percent.

Those figures are not a result. Sweden counts votes twice. Almost all of the 6,312 ordinary districts are tallied on election night. Another 314 districts, covering overseas ballots and late advance votes, wait until Wednesday. In 2022 SVT's Valu also pointed to Andersson's bloc on election night. The final count gave Kristersson the narrow majority that let him form a government. Swedish editors spent Sunday repeating that warning.

The election fills all 349 seats in the Riksdag for 2026-2030. Municipal and regional councils were chosen on the same day. Kristersson has been prime minister since 18 October 2022, heading a minority cabinet of the Moderates, Christian Democrats and Liberals, kept in office by the Sweden Democrats through the Tidö Agreement. That arrangement is the argument of this campaign.

What each side offered

Kristersson spent four years completing Sweden's accession to NATO, raising defence spending, sending more aid to Ukraine and tightening migration rules. The Sweden Democrats, who have supported that government from outside the cabinet, demanded ministerial posts if the right won again. In April the Moderates and the Sweden Democrats announced an understanding: Kristersson would remain prime minister even if the Sweden Democrats outpolled the Moderates, and the Sweden Democrats would take the migration and integration briefs. Liberal leader Simona Mohamsson, who had earlier ruled out sitting with the Sweden Democrats, reversed that position in March.

Andersson, prime minister in 2021-22 and leader of the Social Democrats since November 2021, ran against that package. The Valu numbers, if they survive the count, would give her bloc a working majority without the Sweden Democrats. The Centre Party's 7.5 percent in the exit poll is the piece that makes the arithmetic possible. The Left Party was on 8 percent and the Greens on 7.4 percent. On the other side the Christian Democrats were on 6.1 percent and the Liberals on 5.4 percent, both above the 4 percent threshold that keeps a party in the Riksdag.

A German-language compilation of the same exit poll translated those shares into a notional seat map of 101 Social Democrat seats, 64 Moderate, 61 Sweden Democrat, 29 Left, 27 Centre, 26 Green, 22 Christian Democrat and 19 Liberal. That is a sketch, not a certified allocation.

Why the night is still open

Pre-election polls in the final week were tighter than Valu. Novus on 11 September had Andersson's bloc on 50.8 percent and Kristersson's on 47.8. Demoskop had 50.5 against 48.0. Infostat had 49.6 against 48.8. A gap of one or two points can vanish in the overseas and late-advance pile. The Sweden Democrats have also tended to outperform late polls in recent cycles. That is why no party leader claimed the keys to Rosenbad on Sunday night.

The personal ratings going into the vote favoured Andersson. A June Novus leadership survey gave her 45 percent combined high or fairly high trust, against 33 percent for Kristersson. Jimmie Åkesson of the Sweden Democrats was on 28 percent. Those numbers do not assign seats. They do help explain why the Social Democrats remained the largest single party in every serious poll of the year even as the bloc race stayed inside the margin of a bad Wednesday.

Kristersson and Andersson met in a televised debate in Gävle late in the campaign. Viewers heard the familiar split: crime and migration on one side, welfare and the cost of living on the other. The new fact in 2026 is that a right-wing victory would no longer mean Sweden Democrats influence without Sweden Democrats ministers. That was the explicit April bargain.

What follows the count

Speaker Andreas Norlén will wait for a result that survives the second count before nominating a prime minister. If Andersson's numbers hold, Kristersson's cabinet falls and Sweden returns to a Social Democrat-led government after four years. If they do not, Sweden gets its first cabinet that includes the Sweden Democrats. Either outcome is larger than a single night's graphic.

For now the only hard facts are these: the country voted on 13 September; the first survey says Andersson is ahead; the last time that happened on election night, she lost. Wednesday's districts will decide whether 2026 repeats 2022 or reverses it.