Alstom Shares Fall 26 Percent After Second Profit Warning of the Year

Shares of Alstom SA dropped as much as 26 percent in early Paris trading on 2 November 2026 after the French train manufacturer issued its second major profit warning of the year. The company cut its full-year adjusted profit margin forecast to about 1 percent from a previous 6.5 percent and said free cash flow would turn negative, reaching minus €1.5 billion instead of a positive result.

Alstom also lowered its sales growth guidance to between 2 and 4 percent from about 5 percent and reduced expected train-car production to roughly 4,000 units from a prior range of 4,400 to 4,500. Management outlined a plan to reduce debt by about €2 billion. The moves came less than seven months after new chief executive Martin Sion first cut forecasts in April, an announcement that had already sent the stock down about 30 percent.

The company attributed the latest deterioration to industrialisation problems and delays in obtaining approvals for its Coradia Max regional trains ordered by German states. Half-year adjusted core profit margin swung to about minus 4 percent from plus 6.4 percent a year earlier. First-half sales reached €9.3 billion, up 3 percent year on year. Orders were roughly flat at €11 billion. Car production fell 8 percent to 1,860 units in the period as manufacturing paused in the first quarter to resolve technical issues.

Analysts at Citi noted that the cash outflow forecast equals roughly 20 percent of Alstom’s market capitalisation. The shares have lost more than half their value in 2026. Competitors including Siemens Mobility and Stadler have not reported comparable execution problems on similar platforms. Alstom is the world’s second-largest train maker. The warning places financing risk at the centre of investor attention and raises the possibility of asset sales or other measures to strengthen the balance sheet.

No further guidance on the timing of Coradia Max deliveries was provided. The company said a review of key projects had revealed additional work and schedule overruns beyond the German contracts.